Amidst the roiling conflict in Gaza following the dramatic terror attack by Hamas against Israel in October last year, a spillover into Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, the Houthis setting the Red Sea ablaze, and Iran and Israel exchanging ballistic missile fire pushing the entire region to the precipice of war, Syria was not on many people’s radars. This was until President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule over Damascus collapsed within hours this month.
Who gains from the fall of President Bashar al-Assad? Honestly none in the Middle East or beyond. Several might make tactical gains, but strategically, the region is the biggest loser.
As seen in several other countries, removing a dictator brings thousands of jubilant people to the streets. Accusations of violations often accompany a sense of relief. But the day-after reality tends to be stark, uncertain and even fearful. Syria will not be different.
The Syrian civil war was both, in hibernation, and frozen in a status quo. Since 2011, when the uprising in the Arab country began by way of the Arab Spring, a popular movement which swept across the Middle East region, multiple battles broke out involving local sectarian and ethnic fault lines, regional powers, and international influence. Most prominent was the rapid rise of the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) which forced foes to become temporary allies, moving to defeat the terror group
For India, the upheaval in Syria marks the loss of what analysts call a crucial Islamic “voice of support” on one of its thorniest issues: Kashmir. While New Delhi has long maintained that the Kashmir dispute is a bilateral matter between itself and Pakistan, Syria’s consistent backing at the United Nations and elsewhere was seen as a quiet but significant win.
Syria : The Rise and fall of Asaad